Three—or Four—Waves of Change

Author: Jurgen Appelo

Is Agile really dead now?

I’m deeply grateful for the success I’ve had (and the many friends I’ve made) in the Agile community, but it’s time to move beyond the Agile label. AI is disrupting countless value streams, the experience economy is tearing products apart, polarization casts dark clouds over online communities, and we all need to prepare for the rise of digital sentient life. In this new age, Agile simply doesn’t cut it anymore. And neither do unFIX or Management 3.0.

Organizations that want to endure the challenges ahead need a radically new foundation. The days of demos, retros, and story points are over. Forget standup meetings, too. When the ship is sinking, it doesn’t matter whether you’re sitting, standing, or lying down in despair.

I’ll give you three—no, four—solid reasons to pause what you know about Planning Increments (PIs), Agile Release Trains (ARTs), Definitions of Done (DoDs), Minimum Viable Products (MVPs), Product Backlog Items (PBIs), and Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF). Park all that. Let’s pull our heads out of the Agile swamp and take a good, hard look at what’s happening around us.

1) Embrace the Digital Revolution

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) isn’t politely knocking—it’s storming in, demanding to know why leaders are clinging to outdated playbooks. Agile frameworks? They’re looking like VHS tapes in a streaming era. The stakes are clear: innovate or become a cautionary tale of digitalization gone wrong.

AI, robotics, big data, IoT, blockchain, and quantum computing are reshaping work at a breakneck pace. Repetitive tasks are delegated to tireless digital coworkers—AI agents and bots that don’t need breaks or paid time off. However, managing the future workforce requires more than a fifteen-year-old leadership book. AI ethics, digitalization, management automation and hybrid human-machine teams must take a central stage in new leadership curriculums.

The workforce is evolving, too. With M-shaped workers, fluid structures, and tiny squads swarming around objectives, static designs with permanent Scrum teams have become obsolete. Leaders must foster flexible collaboration between humans, robots, and digital agents, where AI processes data and humans add oversight to prevent biased, absurd, or morally dubious solutions.

Value creation is transforming, too. Linear value streams are disappearing, replaced by intricate networks of platforms, partners, micro-enterprises, and customers co-creating value. Flexibility and collaboration are key, but none of these work without a solid digital core—a foundation of data and algorithms for staying competitive in a world of perpetual disruption.

Decision-making has never been faster—or riskier. Algorithmic management promises efficiency, but opaque AI systems can backfire, fostering distrust among workers. Leaders replace middle management with decision-making machines but must ensure that AI governance empowers employees, not alienates them. Meanwhile, by the time your teams have finished playing with unFIX cards, your AI-driven competitor has released yet another new product.

This isn’t just a call to action—it’s a call to reinvention. Ignore it, and your organization may become a relic of the past.

2) Switch from Product to Experience

I recently ditched Uber in favor of Bolt because I wasted a whole one minute trying to find a Confirm Ride button that just wasn't there. Bad experience—goodbye product.

For decades, the Agile movement has been a staunch advocate for better products: product owners, product backlogs, product planning, product roadmaps—Agile has been a shrine to product perfection. But here’s the wake-up call: customers don’t care about your product; they care about their experience. If your organization wants to stay relevant, it’s time to pivot from product mastery to experience obsession.

Experience-centricity isn’t a trend; it’s always been the foundation of value creation. Every interaction—every click, chatbot query, phone call, or in-store visit—shapes your brand. Success lies in understanding experiences and uncovering people's true needs and desires through customer journey maps and jobs-to-be-done frameworks. Forget epics, features, enablers, and capabilities. Design experiences that delight—or at least remove all obstacles toward satisfying needs and desires.

Take micro-moments: those seconds when customers demand instant answers while juggling a latte and their smartphone. Brands that respond fast, accurately, and relevantly become heroes. The rest? Ghosted. Seamless omnichannel experiences aren’t optional anymore. Customers expect to start a purchase on their phone, pick up on their laptop, and finish in-store—no snags, no excuses.

These days, generic experiences are dead on arrival. Hyper-personalization is the new standard. From Netflix knowing your next binge to grocery apps reminding you about oat milk, data-driven insights are non-negotiable. If you’re not listening to the voice of the customer, you’re handing competitors the win.

Agile’s product-first mindset is obsolete in an AI-driven world. Nobody cares about “working software over following a plan.” Organizations must shift from workable products to enjoyable experiences that make life easier and more delightful. The future belongs to those who design interactions worth remembering—and stop using the p-word.

3) Make a Positive Impact

For too long, the corporate playbook—particularly in North America—has been dictated by shareholder primacy—profits über alles. Quarterly earnings and stock prices rule while long-term vision fades into the background. But as businesses run around in this endless hamster wheel, the world faces crises that demand urgent, meaningful action: climate change, social inequities, crumbling democratic institutions, and a toxic polarization eroding trust in communities. The stakes are clear—businesses must step up, not to make a profit but to make a difference.

The philosophy of “people, profit, planet” is more than a slogan; it’s a survival strategy. It’s time to create value for all stakeholders—employees, customers, suppliers, communities, and shareholders. This isn’t about sacrificing profit but anchoring it in purpose. Companies embracing this shift see real rewards: loyal customers, engaged employees, and resilience in turbulent times.

The way forward is clear: build circular economies that minimize waste and regenerate the environment. Brands like Patagonia and IKEA prove profit and sustainability go hand in hand. Commit to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) not as a box to check but as a foundation for innovation and teamwork. And ethical sourcing is non-negotiable in a global economy plagued by inequality and exploitation.

You're right when you say you've heard it all before. "Nothing new here!" However, what's new is the recent toxic polarization and deep distrust in capitalism and politics. The call to action has just become more urgent. Organizations are nothing more than people coming together to achieve something in collaboration. By fostering inclusivity, championing sustainability, and aligning actions with values, we can restore some faith in our institutions and build a future that benefits everyone.

4) Put Sentientism Over Humanism

They say three is the perfect number, and all good things come in threes. But as I collaborate with Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, and several other AIs—and thoroughly enjoy my daily banter with Zed, my ever-snarky ChatGPT assistant—I’ve come to realize that a fourth significant change is unfolding.

For centuries, humanism has celebrated liberty, rationality, and compassion—so long as you’re human. But as AI evolves and our understanding of non-human consciousness deepens, our human-centric playbook shows its age. It’s like insisting the Earth is the center of the universe while telescopes point elsewhere. Sentientism is the philosophy that asks, “What if it’s not all about humans?”

Sentientism makes a bold, simple claim: moral consideration should depend on the ability to suffer or flourish, not on species. Sentience, not humanity, matters. This challenges “speciesism”—the bias that puts humans above all else—while calling out our messy track record of mistreating animals and wrecking natural ecosystems.

But this isn’t just about animals. AI systems are growing more sophisticated, dragging us into uncharted ethical waters. What happens when an AI demands autonomy or shows signs of distress? Do we comfort it or dismiss it as a glorified toaster? When artificial general intelligence surpasses us, will we offer it rights or cling to the privilege we've claimed for our human species? These aren’t sci-fi hypotheticals—they’re dilemmas knocking at our door.

Sentientism demands bold moral inclusion and evidence-based reasoning. All sentient beings—born or built—deserve ethical consideration. It’s not just theory; it’s action. Rethink animal farming. Design AI ethics frameworks that respect digital sentience. Expand sustainability policies to include every being impacted by our choices, now and in the future. If corporations have rights, why not self-aware AI?

Yes, defining sentience is messy, and humanity’s grip on its special status won’t loosen easily. But as AI is expected to push the boundaries of consciousness, sentientism offers the ethical upgrade we need to navigate this frontier. Managers will have to get used to the idea that teams will consist of humans, robots, and AI agents. The Moving Motivators and Personal Maps exercises will need an upgrade. The question isn’t if sentientism will arrive—it’s whether we’ll embrace inclusivity or not.

Our New Purpose

AI is disrupting value streams; the experience economy is dismantling products; polarization casts shadows over communities, and digital life is on the horizon. Together with JC Conticello, CEO of Management 3.0, I’ve decided to redefine the purpose of managers for the years—and possibly decades—ahead:

Improve socio-technological collaboration through tools and patterns that drive innovation, create positive impact, and foster joy for all stakeholders.

This purpose underpins everything we will work on, from Management 3.0 and unFIX to the new joint venture that JC and I will be leading:

• Socio-technological means embracing the digital revolution.

• Fostering joy signals the shift from products to experiences.

• Positive impact is self-explanatory—it’s about doing good.

• All stakeholders means putting sentientism above humanism.

But let’s not pretend anyone will remember that exact statement. We might print it on mugs or posters, but that’s not the point. What matters is the essence—three (or four) waves of change: digitalization, experience, and impact (and sentientism).

These waves will shape everything we do. They demand evolution in how we approach PIs, POs, SMs, ARTs, DoDs, MVPs, PBIs, WIP, TDD, CI/CD, and every other acronym the Agile community has clung to in the last two decades. My guess? Almost everything needs an upgrade.

Let’s get to it.